{"id":8,"date":"2023-06-07T19:02:24","date_gmt":"2023-06-07T17:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/?p=8"},"modified":"2023-06-14T21:47:49","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T19:47:49","slug":"hospodarsky-vyvoj-po-pandemii-od-krize-ke-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/?p=8","title":{"rendered":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj po pandemii: od krize ke krizi?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Marek Kapi\u010dka<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pandemie Covidu 19 a n\u00e1sledn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ot\u0159\u00e1sly hospod\u00e1\u0159skou aktivitou ve v\u0161ech zem\u00edch. Jak je ale na tom \u010cesko ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sv\u00fdm okol\u00edm? V tomto p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj b\u011bhem pandemick\u00e9 recese a po n\u00ed. Zm\u011bny v hrub\u00e9m dom\u00e1c\u00edm produktu, ale i v jednotliv\u00fdch komponentech (zde se soust\u0159ed\u00edme na spot\u0159ebu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, spot\u0159ebu vl\u00e1dy a hrubou tvorbu kapit\u00e1lu) ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010cesko v mnoh\u00e9m zvolilo jinou cestu ne\u017e jeho soused\u00e9, tedy Rakousko, N\u011bmecko, Polsko a Slovensko. V\u0161echny grafy n\u00ed\u017ee ukazuj\u00ed zm\u011bny \u010dtvrtletn\u00edho re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu (HDP) relativn\u011b k p\u0159ed-pandemick\u00e9 \u00farovni ve 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2019, kdy jsme hodnoty normalizovali na hodnotu 100. Data jsou \u010derp\u00e1na z Eurostatu (s\u00e9rie namq_10_gdp), jsou sez\u00f3nn\u011b a kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobena, a v\u0161echny hodnoty jsou vyj\u00e1d\u0159eny ve st\u00e1l\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme s nejv\u00fdznam\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem, tedy hrub\u00fdm dom\u00e1c\u00edm produktem v prvn\u00edm grafu. Cele obdob\u00ed m\u00e1 dv\u011b pom\u011brn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti: obdob\u00ed b\u011bhem pandemick\u00e9ho roku 2020, a obdob\u00ed bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po pandemii. Jak ukazuje n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf, ani jedno obdob\u00ed nevyzn\u011blo, respektive nevyzn\u00edv\u00e1, pro \u010cesko p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimisticky. B\u011bhem roku 2020 sice do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu HDP okolo 10 procent a v\u00edce ve v\u0161ech zem\u00edch, ale \u010cesko bylo druh\u00e9 nejhor\u0161\u00ed: pouze v Rakousku do\u0161lo k m\u00edrn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu poklesu. Rakousko pot\u00e9 propad dohnalo siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm r\u016fstem. A co \u010cesko? To ji\u017e minim\u00e1ln\u011b rok a p\u016fl v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b stagnuje, a je jedinou zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 ani na chv\u00edli nedos\u00e1hla \u00farovn\u011b HDP p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed. V\u00fdrazn\u011b zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na za Polskem, kter\u00e9 se pohybuje na \u00farovni okolo 10 procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed, ale i za Slovenskem a ji\u017e zmi\u0148ovan\u00fdm Rakouskem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Re\u00e1ln\u00fd hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku 2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Co stoj\u00ed za t\u00edmto nev\u00fdrazn\u00fdm zotaven\u00edm z pandemick\u00e9 recese? Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm komponentem HDP na v\u00fddajov\u00e9 stran\u011b je spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Druh\u00fd graf ukazuje v\u00fdvoj re\u00e1ln\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed. B\u011bhem roku 2020 do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu spot\u0159eby ve v\u0161ech zem\u00edch a \u010cesk\u00e1 republika z toho vych\u00e1z\u00ed relativn\u011b dob\u0159e: p\u0159es pokles o 12 procent do\u0161lo k men\u0161\u00edmu poklesu pouze na Slovensku. Po nev\u00fdrazn\u00e9m zotaven\u00ed v roce 2021 ov\u0161em stoj\u00ed za pozornost dynamika spot\u0159eby v roce 2022 a na po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2023: v \u010cesku jako v jedin\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu spot\u0159eby, kter\u00e1 se v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2023 nach\u00e1z\u00ed 9 procent pod p\u0159ed-pandemickou \u00farovn\u00ed z roku 2019, a patrn\u011b jsme st\u00e1le nedos\u00e1hli dna. Dramatick\u00fd je kontrast zejm\u00e9na se Slovenskem, kde spot\u0159eba ji\u017e dva roky vytrvale roste a ke konci roku 2022 je o 7 procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 kone\u010dn\u00e1 spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku 2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Spot\u0159eba vl\u00e1dy m\u00edrn\u011b narostla b\u011bhem roku 2020 a 2021 a v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech po m\u00edrn\u00e9m poklesu doch\u00e1z\u00ed op\u011bt k r\u016fstu od konce roku 2022 a nyn\u00ed je spot\u0159eba o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 10 procent v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed. (Pro up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed: jedn\u00e1 se o re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst, tedy o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd o inflaci, a jedn\u00e1 se pouze o vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159ebu, kter\u00e1 nezahrnuje nap\u0159\u00edklad transfery). S t\u00edm kontrastuje op\u011bt Slovensko, kde od roku 2021 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159eba v\u00fdrazn\u011b kles\u00e1. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je Rakousko, kde je r\u016fst vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159eby ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s obdob\u00edm p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, na rozd\u00edl od n\u00e1s se ale nejedn\u00e1 o r\u016fst v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch. Rozeb\u00edrat pro\u010d se dynamika spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed tak v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed je t\u00e9ma pro samostatn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek, minim\u00e1ln\u011b se ale nab\u00edz\u00ed hypot\u00e9za, \u017ee u n\u00e1s r\u016fst vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159eby v situaci, kdy nav\u00edc ekonomika v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b stagnuje, vytla\u010doval spot\u0159ebu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed (tzv. crowding out), zat\u00edmco na Slovensku naopak pokles vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159eby uvolnil prostor k r\u016fstu spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 spot\u0159eba vl\u00e1dy ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku 2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b vypad\u00e1 i v\u00fdvoj re\u00e1ln\u00fdch investic (graf 4).  \u010cesko sice pom\u011brn\u011b rychle p\u0159edehnalo \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed a zaost\u00e1valo jasn\u011b pouze za Polskem, kde do\u0161lo v v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu investi\u010dn\u00edmu boomu, jednalo se v\u0161ak pouze o kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd vzestup. Posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed se situace obr\u00e1tila a doch\u00e1z\u00ed k op\u011btovn\u00e9mu poklesu, p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b zp\u011bt na \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed. S v\u00fdjimkou Polska, kter\u00e9 je ale na \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9 \u00farovni, jsme jedinou zem\u00ed, kde doch\u00e1z\u00ed k op\u011btovn\u00e9mu poklesu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 tvorba hrub\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku 2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s okoln\u00edmi zem\u011bmi tedy \u010cesko p\u0159e\u017eilo dobu pandemickou a post-pandemickou s viditeln\u011b hor\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1sledky. Zaost\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se t\u00fdk\u00e1 celkov\u00e9ho HDP, a to zejm\u00e9na jeho hlavn\u00edho komponentu, spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Oba ukazatele se st\u00e1le nevr\u00e1tily na \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e setrval\u00fd pokles spot\u0159eby v posledn\u00edch letech je pom\u011brn\u011b unik\u00e1tn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed a odli\u0161uje n\u00e1s od okoln\u00edch zem\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s obdob\u00edm bezprost\u0159edn\u011b p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed je tedy na\u0161e sk\u00f3re n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: HDP  a investice jsou p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni, soukrom\u00e1 spot\u0159eba minus 9 procent, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159eba plus 10 procent.  Alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed je ale i dynamika v posledn\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch.  \u010cesk\u00e1 republika je na prahu recese ji\u017e n\u011bkolik \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a situace v tuto chv\u00edli nevypad\u00e1 o mnoho optimisti\u010dt\u011bji ne\u017e na podzim, sp\u00ed\u0161e naopak. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Marek Kapi\u010dka Pandemie Covidu 19 a n\u00e1sledn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ot\u0159\u00e1sly hospod\u00e1\u0159skou aktivitou ve v\u0161ech zem\u00edch. Jak je ale na tom \u010cesko ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sv\u00fdm okol\u00edm? V tomto p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj b\u011bhem pandemick\u00e9 recese a po n\u00ed. Zm\u011bny v hrub\u00e9m dom\u00e1c\u00edm produktu, ale i v jednotliv\u00fdch komponentech (zde se soust\u0159ed\u00edme na spot\u0159ebu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, … Continue reading “Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj po pandemii: od krize ke krizi?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[6,8,5,7],"class_list":["post-8","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ceska-ekonomika","tag-hruby-domaci-produkt","tag-investice","tag-pandemie","tag-spotreba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":296,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8\/revisions\/296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}