{"id":474,"date":"2025-04-01T13:03:39","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T11:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/?p=474"},"modified":"2025-04-01T13:15:58","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T11:15:58","slug":"nova-definice-recese-revize-dat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/?p=474","title":{"rendered":"Nov\u00e1 definice recese: Revize dat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Eurostat b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta a podzimu 2024 vydal revidovan\u00e1 data za obdob\u00ed od 2020 do 2024. P\u016fvodn\u00ed data ukazovala, \u017ee \u010cesk\u00e1 republika si pro\u0161la p\u011bti recesemi, z toho dv\u011bma pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto obdob\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, nov\u00e1 revidovan\u00e1 data statistiky \u201ezlep\u0161ila\u201c. Ekonomika na tom tedy byla mnohem l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e uv\u00e1d\u011bla p\u016fvodn\u00ed data. Na\u0161e metodika ji\u017e nenach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u011bt hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch cykl\u016f, ale jenom \u010dty\u0159i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prvn\u00ed, druh\u00e1 a t\u0159et\u00ed recese z\u016fstaly nezm\u011bn\u011bny. Ke zm\u011bn\u011b do\u0161lo u \u010dtvrt\u00e9 recese, ta trvala krat\u0161\u00ed dobu. P\u016fvodn\u00ed data nazna\u010dovala, \u017ee recese za\u010dala v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020 a skon\u010dila ve 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2021. Nov\u00e1 data ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee recese skon\u010dila ji\u017e ve 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020. P\u00e1t\u00e1 recese nenastala v\u016fbec. \u010cerven\u00e1 oblast na grafu 1 zobrazuje obdob\u00ed reces\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 1 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho HDP od roku 1996<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed uv\u00e1d\u00edme i graf 2, kter\u00fd vyobrazuje recese v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice p\u0159ed reviz\u00ed dat (\u010derven\u00e1 oblast). Je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee nerevidovan\u00e1 data nazna\u010duj\u00ed mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159skou situaci b\u011bhem covidov\u00e9 krize a v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech po n\u00ed. Graf 2 vykresluje i p\u00e1tou recesi, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla za\u010d\u00edt ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 2 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho HDP od roku 1996 (p\u0159ed reziv\u00ed dat)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 3 srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u011b\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvanou metodu pro ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed reces\u00ed (zelen\u00e1 oblast) a EABCDC metodu (\u010derven\u00e1 oblast). B\u011b\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e1 metoda tak\u00e9 nazna\u010duje, \u017ee \u010cesk\u00e1 republika pro\u0161la jenom \u010dty\u0159mi hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi cykly. Ta posledn\u00ed za\u010dala v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020, nicm\u00e9n\u011b skon\u010dila ji\u017e ve 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020. B\u011bhem t\u00e9to recese se projevuje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed slabina b\u011b\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 metody. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, a zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b ve 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu poklesu HDP, tak 3. a 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020 vykazuje r\u016fst. Tento r\u016fst je zp\u016fsoben\u00fd n\u00edzkou porovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladnou v 1. a 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020. Jin\u00fdmi slovy statistika zachycuje r\u016fst HDP, ale nejedn\u00e1 se o opravdov\u00fd r\u016fst ekonomiky, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e \u201edoh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed\u201c p\u016fvodn\u00edch hodnot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 3 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a Euroz\u00f3n\u011b od roku 1996<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 4 srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 EABCDC metodu pro \u010ceskou republiku (\u010derven\u00e1 oblast) a Euroz\u00f3nu (\u0161ed\u00e1 oblast). Revidovan\u00e1 data ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee v posledn\u00edch dek\u00e1d\u00e1ch je po\u010det hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch cykl\u016f v Euroz\u00f3n\u011b a v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice stejn\u00fd. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, posledn\u00ed recese byla v Euroz\u00f3n\u011b krat\u0161\u00ed a trvala od 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020 do 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 4 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus pomoc\u00ed EABCDC metody a HDP metody<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revidovan\u00e1 data tak nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika na tom nebyla h\u016f\u0159e ne\u017e ekonomiky Euroz\u00f3ny. K hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 recesi do\u0161lo ihned po p\u0159\u00edchodu covidov\u00e9 krize. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika se z hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho poklesu dok\u00e1zala pom\u011brn\u011b rychle dostat. Potvrzuje se tak teze, \u017ee ekonomiky se l\u00e9pe vyrovn\u00e1vaj\u00ed s recesemi zp\u016fsoben\u00fdmi extern\u00edmi \u0161oky nezap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u011bn\u00fdmi struktur\u00e1ln\u00edmi probl\u00e9my v ekonomice. Recese tak trvala pouze v dob\u011b tzv. \u201elock-down\u016f\u201c ekonomiky. V podstat\u011b ihned po \u201erozvoln\u011bn\u00ed\u201c do\u0161lo k jej\u00edmu r\u016fstu a tento r\u016fst nebyl zastaven ani p\u00e1divou inflac\u00ed a ani v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b. Lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee kdyby nedo\u0161lo k \u201elock-down\u016fm\u201c, recese by nenastala.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eurostat b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta a podzimu 2024 vydal revidovan\u00e1 data za obdob\u00ed od 2020 do 2024. P\u016fvodn\u00ed data ukazovala, \u017ee \u010cesk\u00e1 republika si pro\u0161la p\u011bti recesemi, z toho dv\u011bma pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto obdob\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, nov\u00e1 revidovan\u00e1 data statistiky \u201ezlep\u0161ila\u201c. Ekonomika na tom tedy byla mnohem l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e uv\u00e1d\u011bla p\u016fvodn\u00ed data. Na\u0161e metodika ji\u017e nenach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u011bt hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch … Continue reading “Nov\u00e1 definice recese: Revize dat”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"[]"},"categories":[9],"tags":[12,14,5],"class_list":["post-474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ceska-ekonomika","tag-ekonomicky-cyklus","tag-nova-definice-recese","tag-pandemie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=474"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":485,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474\/revisions\/485"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}