{"id":262,"date":"2024-03-07T16:57:40","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T15:57:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/?p=262"},"modified":"2024-05-30T11:17:24","modified_gmt":"2024-05-30T09:17:24","slug":"hospodarsky-cyklus-nova-definice-recese","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/?p=262","title":{"rendered":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus: nov\u00e1 definice recese"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Datov\u00e1n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu v ekonomice \u201ain real time\u2018 je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro v\u010dasnou reakci ze strany policy makers v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b po\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f v ekonomice. Tato anal\u00fdza proto systematicky kvantifikuje hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice, nal\u00e9z\u00e1 vrcholy, dna, konjunktury a recese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Od roku 1996 lze v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice napo\u010d\u00edtat p\u011bt \u00fapln\u00fdch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch cykl\u016f, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika dos\u00e1hla p\u011btkr\u00e1t sv\u00e9ho vrcholu a p\u011btkr\u00e1t sv\u00e9ho dna. F\u00e1zi mezi dnem a vrcholem naz\u00fdv\u00e1me expanz\u00ed, naopak f\u00e1zi mezi vrcholem a dnem naz\u00fdv\u00e1me reces\u00ed. O recesi v\u011bt\u0161inou hovo\u0159\u00edme, pokud re\u00e1ln\u00fd hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt poklesne alespo\u0148 ve dvou po sob\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch (d\u00e1le jen HDP metoda). V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku se zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme na jinou metodologii kvalifikace f\u00e1z\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu definovanou Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (d\u00e1le jen EABCDC metoda). EABCDC je komise, kter\u00e1 popisuje hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst v zem\u00edch Euroz\u00f3ny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EABCDC metoda vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 nejenom re\u00e1ln\u00e9 HDP, ale tak\u00e9 r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00e9 spot\u0159eby, r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00fdch investic a zam\u011bstnanost m\u011b\u0159enou po\u010dtem osob a po\u010dtem odpracovan\u00fdch hodin. Pomoc\u00ed t\u011bchto ukazatel\u016f se sna\u017e\u00ed identifikovat vrchol a dno hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu. Vrchol je definov\u00e1n jako \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, po kter\u00e9m n\u00e1sleduje pokles ukazatel\u016f ve dvou po sob\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch. Dno je definov\u00e1no jako \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed r\u016fstu ukazatel\u016f ve dvou po sob\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se jedn\u00e1 o prvn\u00ed takov\u00fd r\u016fst po p\u0159edchoz\u00edm vrcholu. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b EABCDC nezve\u0159ej\u0148uje, kolik ukazatel\u016f mus\u00ed poklesnout, respektive r\u016fst, aby \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 ozna\u010dit za vrchol, respektive dno. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 EABCDC uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee se rozhoduje nejen na z\u00e1klad\u011b agreg\u00e1tn\u00edch statistik cel\u00e9 euroz\u00f3ny, n\u00fdbr\u017e p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed i k n\u00e1rodn\u00edm statistik\u00e1m jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro \u00fa\u010dely t\u00e9to anal\u00fdzy jsme stanovili, \u017ee vrchol a dno identifikujeme na z\u00e1klad\u011b poklesu, respektive r\u016fstu alespo\u0148 t\u0159\u00ed ukazatel\u016f ve dvou po sob\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch. Dle na\u0161eho n\u00e1zoru maj\u00ed t\u0159i ukazatele dostate\u010dnou vypov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnotu o f\u00e1zi hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu. Pokles v\u0161ech ukazatel\u016f ve dvou po sob\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch byl zaznamen\u00e1m jen v souvislosti s reces\u00ed vyvolanou pandemi\u00ed COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data pou\u017eit\u00e1 v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze jsou p\u0159evzata z Eurostatu. Jedn\u00e1 se o p\u011bt \u010dtvrtletn\u00edch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad v obdob\u00ed mezi roky 1996 a 2023, index HDP (100 = 2005), r\u016fst spot\u0159eby oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, r\u016fst investic oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst zam\u011bstnanosti oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00fd po\u010dtem osob a po\u010dtem odpracovan\u00fdch hodin. V\u0161echny ukazatele jsou v re\u00e1ln\u00fdch jednotk\u00e1ch, sezonn\u011b a kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u011b o\u010di\u0161t\u011bny1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recese a expanze je nutn\u00e9 sledovat pro evaluaci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch politik. V budoucnosti se lze pak pou\u010dit a prov\u00e1d\u011bt pouze politiky, kter\u00e9 nerozkol\u00eds\u00e1valy hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus, ale sp\u00ed\u0161 se sna\u017eily hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus stabilizovat, tj. nejen sni\u017eovaly hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles v recesi, ale tak\u00e9 tlumily p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst v dob\u011b expanz\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 1 zobrazuje hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus (\u010derven\u00e1 oblast) a r\u016fst HDP v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice od roku 1996 (r\u016fst oproti stejn\u00e9mu \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku). Prvn\u00ed recese zapo\u010dala ve 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 1997 po dosa\u017een\u00e9m vrcholu ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Recese skon\u010dila ve 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 1999, ve kter\u00e9m bylo dosa\u017eeno dna. Recese se projevila poklesem zam\u011bstnanosti, prim\u00e1rn\u011b po\u010dtem odpracovan\u00fdch hodin, a poklesem investic. HDP a spot\u0159eba klesly jen v po\u010d\u00e1tc\u00edch recese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Druh\u00e1 recese p\u0159i\u0161la v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2009 jako reakce na probl\u00e9my americk\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. B\u011bhem recese poklesla zam\u011bstnanost, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b po\u010det zam\u011bstnan\u00fdch osob, a investice. Z po\u010d\u00e1tku pokleslo tak\u00e9 HDP a spot\u0159eba. Oba indik\u00e1tory v\u0161ak ve 2. polovin\u011b recese op\u011bt rostly. Recese dos\u00e1hla sv\u00e9ho dna v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0159et\u00ed recese nastala v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2012. B\u011bhem recese poklesly prim\u00e1rn\u011b investice, HDP a spot\u0159eba. Zam\u011bstnanost se propadla pouze m\u00edrn\u011b. Ke konci recese do\u0161lo k o\u017eiven\u00ed HDP i spot\u0159eby. Recese dos\u00e1hla sv\u00e9ho dna ve 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010ctvrtou recesi zp\u016fsobila pandemie COVID-19 a sice v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2020. B\u011bhem t\u00e9to recese poklesly v\u0161echny sledovan\u00e9 ukazatele. V\u0161echny ukazatele za\u010daly op\u011bt rychle r\u016fst. Rychl\u00fd r\u016fst byl v\u0161ak z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zp\u016fsoben n\u00edzk\u00fdmi hodnotami v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch, kter\u00e9 slou\u017eily jako z\u00e1klad pro v\u00fdpo\u010det r\u016fstu. Recese dos\u00e1hla dna v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2021. P\u00e1t\u00e1 recese p\u0159i\u0161la ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2022. B\u011bhem recese poklesly v\u0161echny sledovan\u00e9 ukazatele krom\u011b po\u010dtu zam\u011bstnan\u00fdch osob. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 Eurostatem za 3. \u010dtvrtletn\u00ed 2023 vykazuj\u00ed pokles ve oproti 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2023 v\u0161ech sledovan\u00fdch ukazatel\u00edch. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee recese dos\u00e1hne sv\u00e9ho dna nejd\u0159\u00edve v 1. \u010dtvrtletn\u00ed roku 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 1 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho HDP od roku 1996<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 2 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a Euroz\u00f3n\u011b od roku 1996<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroj: Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 2 porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 recese v Euroz\u00f3n\u011b (\u0161ed\u00e1 oblast) a \u010cesk\u00e9 republice (\u010derven\u00e1 oblast). Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee nezn\u00e1me p\u0159esnou metodologii pou\u017eitou ke stanoven\u00ed reces\u00ed v Euroz\u00f3n\u011b, je porovn\u00e1n\u00ed problematick\u00e9. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b m\u016f\u017eeme pozorovat t\u0159i skute\u010dnosti. Za prv\u00e9, ve sledovan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed prob\u011bhly v Euroz\u00f3n\u011b pouze t\u0159i recese, zat\u00edmco v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice p\u011bt. Nem\u016f\u017eeme v\u0161ak vylou\u010dit, \u017ee p\u0159i pou\u017eit\u00ed na\u0161eho krit\u00e9ria by Euroz\u00f3na m\u011bla reces\u00ed v\u00edce. Lze v\u0161ak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee recese mezi 4. \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku 1997 a 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku 1999 prob\u011bhla pouze v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice. Za druh\u00e9, recese zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 probl\u00e9my americk\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu p\u0159i\u0161la do Euroz\u00f3ny o n\u011bco d\u0159\u00edve. Tohle by mohlo nejsp\u00ed\u0161e souviset s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm prov\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9mu Euroz\u00f3ny a USA. Za t\u0159et\u00ed, vid\u00edme, \u017ee hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 cykly v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a Euroz\u00f3n\u011b jsou zna\u010dn\u011b synchronizovan\u00e9, co\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o velk\u00e9 prov\u00e1zanosti t\u011bchto ekonomik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 3 \u2013 Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus pomoc\u00ed EABCDC metody a HDP metody<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zdroje: Eurostat, vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graf 3 zobrazuje recese definovan\u00e9 podle \u201eEABCDC metody\u201c (\u010derven\u00e1 oblast) a \u201eHDP metody\u201c (zelen\u00e1 oblast). Lze vypozorovat, \u017ee HDP reaguje na p\u0159\u00edchoz\u00ed recese promptn\u011b. Recese definovan\u00e9 HDP metodou, tj. pokles HDP ve dvou po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve, kon\u010d\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve a trvaj\u00ed krat\u0161\u00ed dobu. HDP v\u0161ak neposkytuje komplexn\u00ed p\u0159ehled o v\u0161ech procesech v ekonomice. Domn\u00edv\u00e1me se, \u017ee EABCDC metoda l\u00e9pe odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fd stav ekonomiky a t\u00edm l\u00e9pe zachycuje f\u00e1ze hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu. Pokud HDP poroste nap\u0159. o 0,1% po dvou po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, \u201eHDP metoda\u201c bude signalizovat, \u017ee ekonomika se ji\u017e vymanila z recese. Takov\u00fd r\u016fst je pouze zanedbateln\u00fd a v krajn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se m\u016f\u017ee jednat jen o chybu m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. Nav\u00edc pokud je r\u016fst spot\u0159eby a investic st\u00e1le z\u00e1porn\u00fd a nezam\u011bstnanost nekles\u00e1, ekonomika se nejsp\u00ed\u0161e st\u00e1le nach\u00e1z\u00ed v recesi. \u201eEABCDC metoda\u201c vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00edce \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad, a tedy izolovan\u00fd r\u016fst HDP nevyhodnot\u00ed jako konec recese. Tato metoda tedy pod\u00e1v\u00e1 mnohem komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a robustn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159ehledn\u00e1 tabulka hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice: Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

  1. Eurostat poskytuje zam\u011bstnanost m\u011b\u0159enou po\u010dtem zam\u011bstnan\u00fdch jen jako sezonn\u011b o\u010di\u0161t\u011bnou bez kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edho o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. EABCDC d\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Francie, pro kterou Eurostat rovn\u011b\u017e neposkytuje kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pro po\u010det pracuj\u00edc\u00edch osob. Rozd\u00edl bude nejsp\u00ed\u0161 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed, a tedy jej zanedb\u00e1v\u00e1me. \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Datov\u00e1n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu v ekonomice \u201ain real time\u2018 je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro v\u010dasnou reakci ze strany policy makers v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b po\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f v ekonomice. Tato anal\u00fdza proto systematicky kvantifikuje hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice, nal\u00e9z\u00e1 vrcholy, dna, konjunktury a recese. Od roku 1996 lze v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice napo\u010d\u00edtat p\u011bt \u00fapln\u00fdch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch cykl\u016f, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika dos\u00e1hla p\u011btkr\u00e1t sv\u00e9ho vrcholu a … Continue reading “Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus: nov\u00e1 definice recese”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"[{\"content\":\"Eurostat poskytuje zam\u011bstnanost m\u011b\u0159enou po\u010dtem zam\u011bstnan\u00fdch jen jako sezonn\u011b o\u010di\u0161t\u011bnou bez kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edho o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. EABCDC d\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Francie, pro kterou Eurostat rovn\u011b\u017e neposkytuje kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pro po\u010det pracuj\u00edc\u00edch osob. Rozd\u00edl bude nejsp\u00ed\u0161 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed, a tedy jej zanedb\u00e1v\u00e1me.\",\"id\":\"352a2cb3-5e2e-4f02-b2bb-85461a47b9fc\"}]"},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ceska-ekonomika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=262"}],"version-history":[{"count":53,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":397,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262\/revisions\/397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/snapshot.cerge-ei.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}